WDPN32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 
25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A 5NM PIN HOLE EYE WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, WEAKENING IS EVIDENT OVER THE PAST 12 
HOURS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS EROSION OF THE 
EYEWALL ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF TY 11W. ADDITIONALLY, 
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL CURRENTLY PROVIDING 
AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE 
SYSTEM. POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE PGTW AND 
RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 130 
KNOTS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER A WEAK STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CHINA.
3. A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY 
EXPECTED BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.
   B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD WITHIN THE WEAKNESS 
BETWEEN THE TWO STEERING RIDGES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 
36, A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN, ALLOWING 
TY 11W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA, JAPAN. TY 11W IS 
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW BALANCED 
BY THE PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN STEADILY WEAKEN 
AS IT TRACKS FARTHER NORTHWARD BECAUSE 
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DROP OFF AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE 
CUT OFF AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 11W SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD 
TOWARD OKINAWA, JAPAN AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT ARE TIGHTLY PACKED INCLUDING NOGAPS, 
JGSM, AND ECMWF. GFS AND GFDN ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS WHILE EGRR IS 
THE WESTERN OUTLIER.//
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