WDPN31 PGTW 291500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN)// WARNING NR 20// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS TOTALLY OBSCURED BY A COLD DENSE OVERCAST AS IT MADE LANDFALL OVER HAINAN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 291037Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTING A WARM C-SHAPED NOTCH OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY TO ACCOUNT FOR TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS AND ESTIMATED FROM THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A LOW- TO MID LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CHINA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY REINTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN WITHIN 12 HOURS. IT WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF VIETNAM AFTER TAU 24, MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S UNLIKELY POLEWARD PULL.// NNNN