WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)//WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED, FORMING A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL
CONTINUOUS DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE. A 132115Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY
CONCENTRIC BANDS OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE IS 
PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG A ZONE OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 08W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED EAST OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THIS WARNING REFLECTS A MARKED INCREASE IN THE FORECAST
INTENSITIES, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. 
   B. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR DESCRIBED ABOVE. AFTER TAU 48,
IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS AND RECEDES TO
THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND FAVOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF UP TO 135 KTS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON MA-ON WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
INCREASING VWS AS IT TURNS TO A MORE POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER,
THE DEGRADATION WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH AND WILL KEEP THE
INTENSITIES NEAR 100 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.
BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KYUSHU AND
POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE NOTABLE DIVERGENCE OCCURS. UKMET
AND GFDN FAVOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IN ANTICIPATION OF DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA. NOGAPS, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS RIGHT OF THE
MODEL ENVELOPE IN RESPONSE TO AN EARLIER WEAKENING AND RECEDING OF
THE STR. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS
AFTER TAU 48 IN FAVOR OF MORE SOLID STR AND MARGINAL DCI.//
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