WDPN32 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)// /WARNING NR 14// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WRAPPING INTO, AND ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN, THE CENTER OF TS 07W. THIS CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVERGENT SURFACE INFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. A RECENT 242344Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC WITH A BROAD CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL (UL) ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF A FILLING UL LOW AND WEST OF AN UL RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM THE LOW AND IMPINGEMENT OF OUTFLOW BY THE RIDGE ARE HAVING LITTLE NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM, WITH VIGOROUS OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR FROM MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN, AND THE 242344Z SSMIS IMAGE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ARE UNREPRESENTATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE SMALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON LOCAL PRESSURE AND WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM SHORE STATIONS AND BUOYS IN THE REGION. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TS 07W (MEARI) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STR TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, 07W WILL ENCOUNTER A MIDLATITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OVER MANCHURIA, CHINA. FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW AND TRACK WILL DEFLECT TO THE WEST AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE STORM. 07W WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE CHINA AND NORTH KOREAN BORDER. INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 36, INTENSITY WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS OF CONSENSUS GROUPED TOGETHER IN A VERY TIGHT PACKING.// NNNN