WTPN51 PGTW 210300 WARNING ATCP MIL 04W NWP 110521011625 2011052100 04W FOUR 004 01 270 05 SATL SYNP 040 T000 089N 1385E 030 T012 091N 1370E 035 T024 095N 1355E 040 R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD T036 099N 1345E 050 R034 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD T048 104N 1331E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD T072 115N 1307E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD T096 130N 1283E 090 T120 150N 1258E 105 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 8.9N 138.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 138.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 9.1N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 9.5N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 9.9N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 10.4N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 11.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 13.0N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 15.0N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 138.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TD BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.// 0411051812 78N1436E 15 0411051818 79N1432E 15 0411051900 79N1429E 15 0411051906 80N1426E 15 0411051912 81N1421E 15 0411051918 84N1413E 15 0411052000 85N1407E 20 0411052006 87N1401E 25 0411052012 88N1396E 30 0411052018 89N1390E 30 0411052100 89N1385E 30 NNNN