WTPN51 PGTW 212100 WARNING ATCP MIL 15W NWP 101021193727 2010102118 15W MEGI 036 03 015 04 SATL 060 T000 206N 1179E 090 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD T012 211N 1182E 085 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD T024 223N 1183E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD T036 236N 1180E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD T048 248N 1175E 040 T072 264N 1170E 020 AMP 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 036 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 036 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 117.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 117.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 21.1N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.3N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 23.6N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 24.8N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 26.4N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 118.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211756Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 40NM RAGGED EYE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON THIS WEAKENING AS WELL AS ON THE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS (RJTD IS CURRENTLY AT 115 KNOTS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST. THE 21/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS AND SOUNDINGS (E.G., FROM ISHIGAKI-JIMA) INDICATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA AND SUPPORT A STRONG STEERING STR. THE TROUGH IS PROPAGATING NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING STRENGTH, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) 1510101018 125N1471E 15 1510101100 126N1464E 15 1510101106 127N1457E 15 1510101112 127N1450E 15 1510101118 126N1443E 20 1510101200 124N1435E 15 1510101206 122N1428E 20 1510101212 121N1421E 20 1510101218 120N1417E 20 1510101300 119N1414E 30 1510101306 118N1411E 35 1510101312 118N1408E 45 1510101318 119N1404E 50 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101406 127N1392E 60 1510101406 127N1392E 60 1510101412 131N1385E 60 1510101412 131N1385E 60 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101712 181N1251E 160 1510101712 181N1251E 160 1510101712 181N1251E 160 1510101718 176N1242E 155 1510101718 176N1242E 155 1510101718 176N1242E 155 1510101800 175N1233E 145 1510101800 175N1233E 145 1510101800 175N1233E 145 1510101806 172N1218E 125 1510101806 172N1218E 125 1510101806 172N1218E 125 1510101812 168N1205E 95 1510101812 168N1205E 95 1510101812 168N1205E 95 1510101818 164N1197E 90 1510101818 164N1197E 90 1510101818 164N1197E 90 1510101900 163N1190E 90 1510101900 163N1190E 90 1510101900 163N1190E 90 1510101906 165N1184E 100 1510101906 165N1184E 100 1510101906 165N1184E 100 1510101912 167N1179E 100 1510101912 167N1179E 100 1510101912 167N1179E 100 1510101918 170N1176E 115 1510101918 170N1176E 115 1510101918 170N1176E 115 1510102000 172N1174E 115 1510102000 172N1174E 115 1510102000 172N1174E 115 1510102006 177N1172E 115 1510102006 177N1172E 115 1510102006 177N1172E 115 1510102012 183N1172E 110 1510102012 183N1172E 110 1510102012 183N1172E 110 1510102018 188N1174E 100 1510102018 188N1174E 100 1510102018 188N1174E 100 1510102100 194N1174E 100 1510102100 194N1174E 100 1510102100 194N1174E 100 1510102106 199N1176E 100 1510102106 199N1176E 100 1510102106 199N1176E 100 1510102112 202N1178E 100 1510102112 202N1178E 100 1510102112 202N1178E 100 1510102118 206N1179E 90 1510102118 206N1179E 90 1510102118 206N1179E 90 NNNN