WTPN51 PGTW 192100 WARNING ATCP MIL 15W NWP 101019203430 2010101918 15W MEGI 028 01 315 04 SATL 040 T000 170N 1176E 115 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 145 NW QD T012 177N 1173E 120 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD T024 184N 1173E 125 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 135 NW QD T036 195N 1171E 115 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 135 NW QD T048 207N 1168E 105 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD T072 229N 1160E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 115 NW QD T096 239N 1152E 060 T120 247N 1142E 035 AMP SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 028 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 117.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 117.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.7N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.4N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.5N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.7N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.9N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.9N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.7N 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 117.5E. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191819Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A 15 NM IRREGULAR EYE AND STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SIGNATURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 115 KNOTS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE IR EYE AND THE AMSU IMAGE. THE 19/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS FURTHER WEAKENED AND SHIFTED WEST OF HAINAN ISLAND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN STR COMBINED WITH SOME EROSION OF THE EASTERN STR HAS PRODUCED A POLEWARD-ORIENTED STEERING INFLUENCE. SUBSEQUENTLY, ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO A POLEWARD TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FOLLOWED. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD THEN SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CHINA AND DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// 1510101018 125N1471E 15 1510101100 126N1464E 15 1510101106 127N1457E 15 1510101112 127N1450E 15 1510101118 126N1443E 20 1510101200 124N1435E 15 1510101206 122N1428E 20 1510101212 121N1421E 20 1510101218 120N1417E 20 1510101300 119N1414E 30 1510101306 118N1411E 35 1510101312 118N1408E 45 1510101318 119N1404E 50 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101406 127N1392E 60 1510101406 127N1392E 60 1510101412 131N1385E 60 1510101412 131N1385E 60 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101712 181N1251E 160 1510101712 181N1251E 160 1510101712 181N1251E 160 1510101718 176N1242E 155 1510101718 176N1242E 155 1510101718 176N1242E 155 1510101800 175N1233E 145 1510101800 175N1233E 145 1510101800 175N1233E 145 1510101806 172N1218E 125 1510101806 172N1218E 125 1510101806 172N1218E 125 1510101812 168N1205E 95 1510101812 168N1205E 95 1510101812 168N1205E 95 1510101818 164N1197E 90 1510101818 164N1197E 90 1510101818 164N1197E 90 1510101900 163N1190E 90 1510101900 163N1190E 90 1510101900 163N1190E 90 1510101906 165N1184E 100 1510101906 165N1184E 100 1510101906 165N1184E 100 1510101912 167N1179E 100 1510101912 167N1179E 100 1510101912 167N1179E 100 1510101918 170N1176E 115 1510101918 170N1176E 115 1510101918 170N1176E 115 NNNN