WTPN51 PGTW 182100 WARNING ATCP MIL 15W NWP 101018200203 2010101818 15W MEGI 024 01 270 11 SATL 040 T000 168N 1193E 090 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD T012 167N 1177E 100 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD T024 170N 1164E 105 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD T036 178N 1155E 110 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD T048 187N 1151E 115 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 130 NW QD T072 202N 1141E 105 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 135 NW QD T096 216N 1123E 090 T120 229N 1104E 060 AMP 120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 024 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 119.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 119.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.7N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.0N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.8N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.7N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.2N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.6N 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.9N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 118.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH- EAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 15W HAS TRACKED BACK OVER WATER AND HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB). A 181509Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT OVER ALL QUADRANTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CHINA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND TCB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 115 KNOTS PLUS THE STRONG MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 24-72 BASED ON OBSERVED WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND EVIDENCE OF A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE DATA) HAS SUBSEQUENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A STAIR-STEP PATTERN. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, GFS, JGSM, NOGAPS, GFDN) PLUS WBAR NOW SUPPORT THIS TRACK AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING STR AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR RE-BUILDS NORTH NEAR TAU 72. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION NEAR TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z. // 1510101018 125N1471E 15 1510101100 126N1464E 15 1510101106 127N1457E 15 1510101112 127N1450E 15 1510101118 126N1443E 20 1510101200 124N1435E 15 1510101206 122N1428E 20 1510101212 121N1421E 20 1510101218 120N1417E 20 1510101300 119N1414E 30 1510101306 118N1411E 35 1510101312 118N1408E 45 1510101318 119N1404E 50 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101406 127N1392E 60 1510101406 127N1392E 60 1510101412 131N1385E 60 1510101412 131N1385E 60 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101712 181N1251E 160 1510101712 181N1251E 160 1510101712 181N1251E 160 1510101718 176N1242E 155 1510101718 176N1242E 155 1510101718 176N1242E 155 1510101800 175N1233E 145 1510101800 175N1233E 145 1510101800 175N1233E 145 1510101806 172N1218E 125 1510101806 172N1218E 125 1510101806 172N1218E 125 1510101812 168N1205E 95 1510101812 168N1205E 95 1510101812 168N1205E 95 1510101818 168N1193E 90 1510101818 168N1193E 90 1510101818 168N1193E 90 NNNN