WTPN51 PGTW 171500 WARNING ATCP MIL 15W NWP 101017125559 2010101712 15W MEGI 019 01 250 11 SATL 020 T000 181N 1251E 155 R064 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 065 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 105 SE QD 125 SW QD 145 NW QD T012 177N 1229E 145 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 115 SE QD 130 SW QD 145 NW QD T024 173N 1207E 095 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 125 SE QD 135 SW QD 150 NW QD T036 170N 1187E 100 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 125 SE QD 135 SW QD 145 NW QD T048 170N 1173E 105 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 125 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD T072 173N 1155E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 125 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD T096 181N 1139E 115 T120 196N 1125E 110 AMP SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 019 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 125.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 125.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.7N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.3N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 17.0N 118.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.0N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 17.3N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 18.1N 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.6N 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 124.6E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z. // 1510101018 125N1471E 15 1510101100 126N1464E 15 1510101106 127N1457E 15 1510101112 127N1450E 15 1510101118 126N1443E 20 1510101200 124N1435E 15 1510101206 122N1428E 20 1510101212 121N1421E 20 1510101218 120N1417E 20 1510101300 119N1414E 30 1510101306 118N1411E 35 1510101312 118N1408E 45 1510101318 119N1404E 50 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101406 127N1392E 60 1510101406 127N1392E 60 1510101412 131N1385E 60 1510101412 131N1385E 60 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101618 187N1288E 125 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101700 187N1275E 140 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101706 185N1262E 145 1510101712 181N1251E 155 1510101712 181N1251E 155 1510101712 181N1251E 155 NNNN