WTPN51 PGTW 161500 WARNING ATCP MIL 15W NWP 101016125658 2010101612 15W MEGI 015 01 285 13 SATL 040 T000 184N 1302E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD T012 190N 1277E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD T024 188N 1254E 125 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 115 NW QD T036 183N 1232E 135 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD T048 178N 1211E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD T072 177N 1177E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD T096 180N 1153E 105 T120 189N 1131E 110 AMP SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 015 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.0N 127.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.8N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.3N 123.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.8N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.7N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.0N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 18.9N 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 129.6E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z. // 1510101018 125N1471E 15 1510101100 126N1464E 15 1510101106 127N1457E 15 1510101112 127N1450E 15 1510101118 126N1443E 20 1510101200 124N1435E 15 1510101206 122N1428E 20 1510101212 121N1421E 20 1510101218 120N1417E 20 1510101300 119N1414E 30 1510101306 118N1411E 35 1510101312 118N1408E 45 1510101318 119N1404E 50 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101406 127N1392E 60 1510101406 127N1392E 60 1510101412 131N1385E 60 1510101412 131N1385E 60 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101418 136N1378E 80 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101500 142N1372E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101506 149N1365E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101512 158N1355E 90 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101518 167N1343E 95 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101600 174N1329E 90 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101606 181N1315E 100 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101612 184N1302E 105 1510101612 184N1302E 105 NNNN