WTPN51 PGTW 140900 WARNING ATCP MIL 15W NWP 101014075250 2010101406 15W MEGI 006 01 305 08 SATL AIRC 060 T000 127N 1392E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 135N 1378E 065 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD T024 145N 1362E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD T036 155N 1343E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD T048 164N 1321E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD T072 173N 1276E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD T096 173N 1235E 120 T120 168N 1196E 095 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 139.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 139.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.5N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 14.5N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 15.5N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.4N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.3N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.3N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.8N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 138.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE EVIDENT. A 140422Z AMSR-E 36V IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC); HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET OF AN EYE IN EITHER VISIBLE OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS, PRIMARILY BASED ON AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 140436Z INDICATING MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 986 MB; DVORAK ESTIMATES VARY WIDELY AND RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 35 KNOTS (RJTD) TO 65 KNOTS (PGTW). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT POSITION DATA AND THE AMSR-E IMAGE, WHICH WERE COINCIDENT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEAK PRESSURE ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK ANTICYLONIC FROM THE WEAKENING DISTURBANCE NEAR 10N 130E. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE DISRUPTING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 15 KNOT PER DAY RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST, HOWEVER, 15W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 120 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// 1510101018 125N1471E 15 1510101100 126N1464E 15 1510101106 127N1457E 15 1510101112 127N1450E 15 1510101118 126N1443E 20 1510101200 124N1435E 15 1510101206 122N1428E 20 1510101212 121N1421E 20 1510101218 120N1417E 20 1510101300 119N1414E 30 1510101306 118N1411E 35 1510101312 118N1408E 45 1510101318 119N1404E 50 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101400 122N1399E 55 1510101406 127N1392E 60 1510101406 127N1392E 60 NNNN