WTPN51 PGTW 130900 WARNING ATCP MIL 15W NWP 101013074915 2010101306 15W FIFTEEN 002 01 270 04 SATL 060 T000 119N 1409E 035 T012 120N 1402E 045 R034 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD T024 125N 1392E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD T036 132N 1379E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD T048 140N 1365E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD T072 158N 1328E 090 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD T096 175N 1290E 100 T120 183N 1248E 105 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 140.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 140.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 12.0N 140.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 12.5N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.2N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 14.0N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.8N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.5N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.3N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 140.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z. // 1510101018 125N1471E 15 1510101100 126N1464E 15 1510101106 127N1457E 15 1510101112 127N1450E 15 1510101118 126N1443E 20 1510101200 124N1435E 15 1510101206 122N1428E 20 1510101212 121N1421E 20 1510101218 120N1417E 30 1510101300 119N1413E 25 1510101306 119N1409E 35 NNNN