WTPN52 PGTW 212100 WARNING ATCP MIL 13W NWP 100921200228 2010092118 13W MALAKAS 007 01 295 10 SATL 060 T000 195N 1428E 040 R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD T012 203N 1415E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD T024 214N 1407E 055 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD T036 231N 1403E 065 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD T048 246N 1403E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD T072 311N 1434E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD T096 404N 1516E 055 AMP 072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 096HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 142.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 142.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.3N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.4N 140.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 23.1N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 24.6N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.1N 143.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 29 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 40.4N 151.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 142.5E. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211629Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING. IMAGERY ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS DISPLACED EQUATORWARD FROM THE STORM'S CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SLOWLY DUE TO NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THE CURRENT RECURVE TRACK. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE UNDER MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 60 AND 72 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.// 1310091812 156N1523E 15 1310091818 156N1516E 15 1310091900 157N1508E 20 1310091906 159N1498E 20 1310091912 164N1489E 20 1310091918 171N1478E 20 1310092000 180N1467E 20 1310092006 184N1463E 25 1310092012 186N1460E 30 1310092018 186N1457E 35 1310092100 186N1454E 35 1310092106 187N1448E 35 1310092112 191N1438E 40 1310092118 195N1428E 40 NNNN