WTPN51 PGTW 170900 WARNING ATCP MIL 12W NWP 100917065339 2010091706 12W FANAPI 011 01 315 03 SATL RADR 040 T000 227N 1280E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD T012 232N 1270E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 105 NW QD T024 235N 1255E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD T036 238N 1235E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD T048 239N 1215E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD T072 245N 1175E 055 T096 261N 1145E 020 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 011 1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 22.7N 128.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 128.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.2N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 23.5N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 23.8N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 23.9N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 24.5N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 26.1N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 127.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH AN IRREGULAR EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. BASED ON THE THIS LATEST IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR FIXES FROM OKINAWA (220 NM NORTH), THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY TURNED NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE DEVELOPING EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 75 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN NEAR TAU 48. AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER THE THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD INTO CHINA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK. THE 17/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FILLS AND KICKS NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATES INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID- TO UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS TAIWAN AND SHOULD MAINTAIN TS STRENGTH UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL OVER CHINA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. // 1210091218 158N1374E 15 1210091300 164N1364E 15 1210091306 169N1354E 15 1210091312 173N1344E 20 1210091318 175N1333E 20 1210091400 178N1319E 20 1210091406 182N1307E 20 1210091412 188N1299E 20 1210091418 194N1292E 30 1210091500 200N1285E 30 1210091506 207N1279E 30 1210091512 209N1276E 40 1210091518 212N1274E 45 1210091600 214N1278E 55 1210091600 214N1278E 55 1210091606 216N1282E 60 1210091606 216N1282E 60 1210091612 219N1283E 65 1210091612 219N1283E 65 1210091618 222N1283E 70 1210091618 222N1283E 70 1210091618 222N1283E 70 1210091700 225N1282E 70 1210091700 225N1282E 70 1210091700 225N1282E 70 1210091706 227N1280E 75 1210091706 227N1280E 75 1210091706 227N1280E 75 NNNN