WTPN51 PGTW 160900 WARNING ATCP MIL 12W NWP 100916072558 2010091606 12W FANAPI 007 01 080 05 SATL 060 T000 215N 1283E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 220N 1284E 065 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD T024 227N 1280E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 232N 1271E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD T048 236N 1255E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD T072 240N 1222E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD T096 246N 1183E 060 T120 260N 1150E 025 AMP 120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 128.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 128.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 22.0N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 22.7N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.2N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 23.6N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 24.0N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 24.6N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 26.0N 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 128.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 12W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE 160442Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER- LEVEL FEATURE TRACK WINDS DEPICT CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE, THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, OUTFLOW IS GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK INTERACTION WITH THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN JAPAN BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD AS A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE 16/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS (AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY) SHOWS EVIDENCE THAT THE RIDGE IS BUILDING RAPIDLY INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. THEREFORE, MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE ON INITIATING A TURN IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS TAIWAN, WEAKEN AND RE-EMERGE IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT, AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND CHINA NEAR TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.// 1210091218 158N1374E 15 1210091300 164N1364E 15 1210091306 169N1354E 15 1210091312 173N1344E 20 1210091318 175N1333E 20 1210091400 178N1319E 20 1210091406 182N1307E 20 1210091412 188N1299E 20 1210091418 194N1292E 30 1210091500 200N1285E 30 1210091506 207N1279E 30 1210091512 209N1276E 40 1210091518 212N1274E 45 1210091600 214N1278E 55 1210091600 214N1278E 55 1210091606 215N1283E 55 1210091606 215N1283E 55 NNNN