WTPN53 PGTW 070900 WARNING ATCP MIL 10W NWP 100907071157 2010090706 10W MALOU 023 01 050 15 SATL RADR SYNP 060 T000 349N 1301E 035 R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD T012 357N 1333E 030 T024 361N 1373E 020 T036 367N 1432E 020 AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 012HR EXTRATROPICAL 024HR EXTRATROPICAL 036HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 023 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 34.9N 130.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.9N 130.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 35.7N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 36.1N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 36.7N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 35.1N 130.9E. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TS 10W HAS STARTED TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN AND HAS BEGUN TO ATTAIN A FRONTAL SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE A RAPIDLY WEAKENING WARM CORE. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A DELTA RAIN REGION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THIS EVIDENCE, THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS NOW TRACKING WITHIN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW UNDER 30-40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON JMA RADAR DATA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM 35-45 KNOTS (CI ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45-55 KNOTS). THIS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TSUSHIMA ISLAND WHICH INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22 GUSTING TO 31 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 999 MB AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLAND NEAR 07/03Z. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS. MALOU SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE JAPAN ALPS, SO EXPECT A 20-25 KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN BY 08/11Z. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS THIS TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.// 1010083018 121N1470E 15 1010083100 123N1464E 15 1010083106 124N1457E 15 1010083112 124N1449E 15 1010083118 129N1439E 15 1010090100 138N1429E 15 1010090106 148N1419E 15 1010090112 158N1409E 20 1010090118 167N1398E 25 1010090200 178N1387E 30 1010090206 195N1372E 30 1010090212 209N1360E 30 1010090218 219N1345E 30 1010090300 229N1330E 30 1010090306 234N1309E 35 1010090312 237N1296E 35 1010090318 240N1282E 35 1010090400 242N1272E 35 1010090406 253N1273E 35 1010090412 268N1271E 35 1010090418 277N1265E 35 1010090500 286N1262E 35 1010090506 295N1261E 35 1010090512 305N1261E 35 1010090518 312N1260E 40 1010090600 318N1261E 40 1010090606 324N1263E 40 1010090612 329N1270E 45 1010090618 333N1278E 40 1010090700 339N1287E 40 1010090706 349N1301E 35 NNNN