WDPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 20 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. KOMPASU HAS WEAKENED 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
TWELVE HOURS AND NO LONGER HAS A VISIBLE EYE. THE CLOUD TOPS ARE 
RAPIDLY WARMING AND ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE 
NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THIRTY TO FOURTY KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
ARE ASSESSED OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY 
CONSERVATIVELY REFLECTS THIS WEAKENING AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 
PGTW DVORAK FIXES FROM THE PREVIOUS 2 FIX CYCLES. OBSERVATIONS FROM 
RKPC DO NOT INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON STATION. 
THEREFORE THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII DO NOT ENCOMPASS CHEJU, AND HAVE 
BEEN CONTRACTED IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS TO REFLECT A STILL FAIRLY 
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. 
   B. TY 08W IS POSITIONED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN APPROXIMATELY TWELVE 
HOURS NEAR SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT 12-HOUR 
RATE OF WEAKENING IT IS NOT UNLIKELY THAT KOMPASU COMES ASHORE MUCH 
WEAKER THAN 65 KNOTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO 
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER PASSING OVER 
THE KOREAN PENINSULA THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS TRANSITION INTO AN 
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN 
THE SEA OF JAPAN. SHORTLY AFTER 030000Z KOMPASU WILL HAVE COMPLETED 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OBJECTIVE MODEL TRACKERS CONTINUE TO 
BE IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT.//
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