WDPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED EYE, WHICH CONFIRMS (WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE) 
THE CURRENT POSITION AND PAST SIX HOUR MOTION. A 312156Z TRMM 37GHZ 
MICROWAVE PASS ALSO DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND 
INDICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DEEPEST CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE 
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM 
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WHICH ARE ALSO 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 
 3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. 
   B. TY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. AN 
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS STEERING RIDGE, 
ALLOWING FOR RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BETWEEN 
TAU 12 AND TAU 24. GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS 
THE RIDGE AXIS, FURTHER INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINC BOUNDARY, AND 
MAKES LANDFALL NORTH OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 
36. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) 
NEAR TAU 24, CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD, AND COMPLETE ET BEFORE 
PASSING NORTH OF MISAWA, JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN 
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL 
CONSENSUS.//
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