WTPN51 PGTW 282100 WARNING ATCP MIL 07W NWP 100828194936 2010082818 07W LIONROCK 007 01 330 07 SATL 060 T000 193N 1163E 035 T012 203N 1161E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD T024 212N 1158E 050 R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD T036 220N 1155E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD T048 227N 1152E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD T072 237N 1141E 035 T096 242N 1125E 020 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 116.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 116.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.3N 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.2N 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.0N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 22.7N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 23.7N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 24.2N 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 116.2E. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO 5-10 KNOTS WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 281346Z ASCAT IMAGE AND RECENT FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 WHEN IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NOGAPS, UKMO, GFDN, JGSM, ECMEF, WBAR AND GFS) DIVERGE AFTER TAU 24. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. MODEL ANALYSIS OF ECMWF AND GFS, WHICH SHOW A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD TAIWAN, INDICATE INTERACTION WITH A LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF TAIWAN. THIS INTERACTION APPEARS TO BE EXCESSIVE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF TS 07W WHICH IS DEPICTED TOO WEAK AND ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT IN STRENGTH TO THE TAIWAN LOW. THE UKMO MODEL IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND DEPICTS A SHARPER TURN WESTWARD SOUTH OF HONG KONG. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN AS WELL AS POSSIBLE (BUT UNLIKELY) INTERACTION WITH THE TAIWAN LOW. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED WEST OF CONSENSUS. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55-60 KNOTS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// 0710082606 160N1203E 15 0710082612 155N1194E 15 0710082618 154N1190E 20 0710082700 153N1187E 15 0710082706 154N1184E 25 0710082712 158N1181E 25 0710082718 165N1179E 30 0710082800 174N1177E 30 0710082806 182N1171E 30 0710082812 187N1167E 35 0710082818 193N1163E 35 NNNN