WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
170 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY MSI AND A 292255Z 37V SSMIS
IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 07W APPEARS TO BE
INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL LOW (92W) LOCATED ABOUT 460
NM NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. DUE TO THE WEAK INTERACTION, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED EAST AND EXTENDED TO TAU 72.  
   B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH WIDE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS DUE TO THE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION.
THE ECMWF AND JGSM ARE THE EASTERN MOST OUTLIERS AND INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT BINARY INTERACTION WITH 92W (NEAR TAIWAN). GFS AND
UKMO ARE THE WESTERN MOST OUTLIERS AND INDICATE A SHARP WESTWARD
TURN SUPPORTED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST
CHINA. THIS FORECAST FAVORS WEAK INTERACTION WITH 92W AND IS
POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONSENSUS. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY UP TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72 BUT THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND MARGINAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.//
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