WTPN51 PGTW 232100 WARNING ATCP MIL 06W NWP 100823194824 2010082318 06W MINDULLE 007 01 300 09 SATL 060 T000 172N 1086E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD T012 182N 1072E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD T024 191N 1060E 055 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD T036 195N 1052E 040 T048 198N 1046E 020 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 108.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 108.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 18.2N 107.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 19.1N 106.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.5N 105.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.8N 104.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 108.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 231805Z AMSU 89H GHZ IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS THE RECENT IMPROVING TREND WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT. THIS IMAGE ANCHORS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 23/12Z POSITION WAS SHIFTED 35 NM NORTHEAST OF THE 23/12Z WARNING POSITION BASED ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 231035Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THIS FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED BUT IS PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN INDICATING A MORE REALISTIC NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN LINE WITH UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING DEEP, STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY, TS 06W HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 60-65 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.// 0610081900 187N1257E 15 0610081906 187N1250E 15 0610081912 188N1237E 15 0610081918 190N1228E 20 0610082000 189N1217E 20 0610082006 187N1208E 20 0610082012 183N1199E 20 0610082018 177N1189E 20 0610082100 168N1182E 20 0610082106 161N1176E 20 0610082112 159N1168E 20 0610082118 159N1161E 20 0610082200 159N1152E 20 0610082206 159N1143E 30 0610082212 159N1132E 30 0610082218 159N1121E 30 0610082300 160N1110E 35 0610082306 164N1102E 45 0610082312 168N1094E 50 0610082318 172N1086E 55 0610082318 172N1086E 55 NNNN