WDPN31 PGTW 231500Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 231137Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE ENHANCED 
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM ALL 
QUADRANTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION BASED ON THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND IS BASED ON DVORAK 
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF 
LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ENHANCED 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER AN AREA OF FAVORABLE 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREES C).  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. WHILE NOT REFLECTING A CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, THE PEAK 
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN IMPROVING UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (INCREASED OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VWS) ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE FILLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF TS 06W 
THAT HAD BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, 
AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER JAPAN. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, TS 
06W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL VIETNAM. 
AFTER TAU 36, MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM SHOULD 
DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 72 TS 
MINDULLE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
NOGAPS AND GFDN, WHICH FORECAST A WEAKNENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE 
AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS, EGRR, ECMWF, JGSM, AND GFS WHICH FAVOR A MORE 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.//
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