WDPN31 PGTW 081500Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 
NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 081106Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE SOUTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, THE DEEP 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS STILL BEING SUPPRESSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 
081025Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 05W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH 
IS IMPINGING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE 
NORTHEAST, WHICH IS SLOWING INTENSIFICATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST REASONING IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK 
PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER, IN THIS FORECAST INTENSIFICATION IS SOONER AND 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MAXIMUM INTENSITY BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING 
NORTHWARD, DECREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
   B. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF JAPAN AND WILL 
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 05W 
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
REACHING A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LAND AS 
WELL AS THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU 96 IT IS EXPECTED TO 
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE INITIAL TAUS. AFTER 
TAU 48, THE MODEL TRACKERS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SPREAD AS THEY DEPICT 
DIFFERENT INTERACTIONS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND 
SUBSEQUENT RE-CURVATURE POINTS. ECMWF RECURVES FASTER THAN THE OTHER 
MODELS, TRACKING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO SASEBO, JAPAN. WBAR IS AN 
OUTLIER TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKING TOWARDS CHEJU 
ISLAND. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL 
CONSENSUS.//
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