WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (CHANTHU)
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (CHANTHU), INTENSIFIED FROM A TROPICAL STORM
AND DEVELOPED AN EYE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM
GETTING FRAYED ON THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF CHINA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON MULTIPLE MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 212310Z AMSU-B PASS,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 FROM KNEW, PGTW, AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN AN AREA OF WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS
SUPPORTED BY UPPER-AIR DATA FROM NANNING AND HAIKOU.
 3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. CHANTHU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR ZHANJIANG NEAR TAU 06, THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BEFORE TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND WBAR
DEVIATING ABRUPTLY TO THE RIGHT AND NORTH OF THE ENVELOPE AND JGSM,
ECMWF, AND GFS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PACK. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWARD DEVIATION.//
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