WTPN51 PGTW 140900 WARNING ATCP MIL 03W NWP 100714070522 2010071406 03W CONSON 012 01 305 15 SATL 040 T000 154N 1184E 050 R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD T012 163N 1162E 045 R034 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD T024 174N 1145E 045 R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD T036 185N 1130E 045 R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD T048 197N 1117E 040 R034 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD T072 223N 1097E 030 T096 239N 1087E 020 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 012 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 118.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 118.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.3N 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.4N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.5N 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.7N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 22.3N 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 23.9N 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 117.8E. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 25 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE LLCC REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CHINA. UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE TRACK WINDS AND UPPER AIR DATA FROM XISHA DAO, LAOAG AND HAIKOU INDICATE 40-60 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COVERING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM KNES, PGTW AND RJTD. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER CHINA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR ZHANJIANG, CHINA NEAR 16/18Z. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST BY THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// 0310071006 118N1377E 15 0310071012 122N1367E 15 0310071018 123N1358E 20 0310071100 126N1349E 20 0310071106 130N1339E 20 0310071112 136N1330E 30 0310071118 141N1315E 40 0310071200 143N1302E 50 0310071206 142N1291E 60 0310071206 142N1291E 60 0310071212 142N1278E 60 0310071212 142N1278E 60 0310071218 142N1264E 65 0310071218 142N1264E 65 0310071300 142N1250E 70 0310071300 142N1250E 70 0310071300 142N1250E 70 0310071306 143N1236E 65 0310071306 143N1236E 65 0310071312 144N1222E 60 0310071312 144N1222E 60 0310071318 144N1213E 50 0310071400 146N1197E 55 0310071400 146N1197E 55 0310071406 154N1184E 50 NNNN