WTPN51 PGTW 131500 WARNING ATCP MIL 03W NWP 100713130945 2010071312 03W CONSON 009 01 280 14 SATL 060 T000 145N 1222E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD T012 152N 1199E 055 R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD T024 163N 1177E 050 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD T036 174N 1159E 050 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD T048 185N 1145E 045 R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD T072 211N 1122E 040 R034 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD T096 235N 1107E 030 T120 259N 1091E 020 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 009 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 009 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 03W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 122.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 122.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.2N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.3N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 17.4N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.5N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 21.1N 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 23.5N 110.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 25.9N 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 121.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO TS STRENGTH DUE TO INCREASED LAND INTERACTION AND STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASED AND RANGE FROM 45 (PGTW) TO 77 (RJTD) KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.// 0310071006 118N1377E 15 0310071012 122N1367E 15 0310071018 123N1358E 20 0310071100 126N1349E 20 0310071106 130N1339E 20 0310071112 136N1330E 30 0310071118 141N1315E 40 0310071200 143N1302E 50 0310071206 142N1291E 60 0310071206 142N1291E 60 0310071212 142N1278E 60 0310071212 142N1278E 60 0310071218 142N1264E 65 0310071218 142N1264E 65 0310071300 142N1250E 70 0310071300 142N1250E 70 0310071300 142N1250E 70 0310071306 143N1236E 65 0310071306 143N1236E 65 0310071312 145N1222E 60 0310071312 145N1222E 60 NNNN