WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) 
WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 171125Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
MADE LANDFALL AT 17/12Z. IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AMSU
IMAGE AND A 170955Z SSMIS IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A DEFINED LLCC AND
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS.  
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24.//
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