WDPN31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 19// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TYPHOON 03W (CONSON) HAS MAINTAINED A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND HAS INTENSIFIED TO 75 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152359Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 160027Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A BANDING EYE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER LUZON HAVE CONTINUED TO AID IN THE WEAKENING OF THE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TYPHOON 03W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST-NORHTWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE ZONAL EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TY CONSON IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE VWS (20 KNOTS) AND HIGH SST VALUES. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 LAND INTERACTION SHOULD DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 IN THE VICINIITY OF HANOI, VIETNAM AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE AFFECTS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN VIETNAM COAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS AND GFDN WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL ERRORS AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHICH HAVE CONTINUED TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST.// NNNN