WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) 
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) HAS MAINTAINED A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND HAS RECENTLY 
INTENSIFIED TO 60 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL 
SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTION WHILE RECENT ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY (IN ADDITION TO INFRARED) SUGGESTS THE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE 
LAST SIX HOURS. AS A RESULT, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND KNES 
HAVE COME UP TO 4.0. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THOSE DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL AS A 
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE 151124Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TS CONSON WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN EAST OF 
JAPAN. THE 151200Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING OUT OF HAIKOU (20N 110.3E) 
STILL SHOWS STEADY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN 
STARTING AT 700 MB. ACCORDINGLY, THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO TAKE A 
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL AIDES, 
TOWARD THE WEST SIDE OF HAINAN, AND LIES TO THE WEST OF THE JTWC 
CONSENSUS. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE ERRONEOUSLY 
DRIVING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE BY TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, 
THE TC CONSON IS STILL EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO 
SUSTAINED VWS. HOWEVER, THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 
HOURS DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH 
PUSHING ACROSS LUZON, CAUSING A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE UPPER-LEVEL 
NORTH-EASTERLIES AND ENABLING THE VWS TO SOMEWHAT RELAX. OVER THE 
NEXT SIX HOURS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STORM MAY EVEN 
ATTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH.//
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