WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) 
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE HIGH (>30 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), TS 03W HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
PARTIAL 142210Z 85 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE PASS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH MOST OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO 
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED 
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CHINA. THERE IS DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE 
POSITION BASED ON THE POORER RESOLUTION AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING 
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TS 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER CHINA AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
PERIOD, CROSSING THE ISLAND OF HAINAN BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. TS 
03W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO 
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 36, THIS FORECAST 
FAVORS A TRACK SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR GFS AND 
TCLAPS OUTLIERS WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO 
THE RIDGE AND IS BASED ON THE ANTICIPATION OF A MORE ZONAL STEERING 
PATTERN.//
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