WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (CONSON) 
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO TS STRENGTH (60 
KNOTS) BASED ON THE WEAKENING ORGANIZATION DUE TO INCREASING LAND 
INTERACTION AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEGRADED OUTFLOW OVER 
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHERE 
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS PENETRATED INTO THE CORE 
OF THE SYSTEM. SUBSEQUENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED PRIMARILY 
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS WEAKENED 
SIGNIFICANTLY. A 131029Z AMSU IMAGE HIGHLIGHTS THE DRAMATIC CHANGE 
THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SHOWS A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP 
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LLCC REMAINS 
WELL-DEFINED, HOWEVER, WITH CURVED BANDING EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 
MOTION BASED ON THE AMSU IMAGE AS WELL AS A 130915Z CORIOLIS IMAGE. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED 
ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 77 KNOTS. THIS 
IS SUPPORTED BY A 130151Z ASCAT 25 KM IMAGE SHOWING A SMALL CORE OF 
60 KNOT WINDS.    
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TS 03W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD MANILA UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER AIR DATA FROM
LAOAG (98223) AND XISHA DAO (59981) INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW AT 45-70 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA.
THEREFORE, TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD 
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON THROUGH TAU 24. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS, WHICH 
DEPICTS AN ERRONEOUS NORTHWARD TRACK. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG, CONVERGENT FLOW AND 30-40 KNOT 
NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL STR ENTRENCHED OVER 
SOUTHERN CHINA. IN THE EVENT THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FASTER THAN EXPECTED 
AFTER TAU 48, TS 03W WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. 
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ABOUT 125
NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG AND SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 96.//
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