WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) 
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TS 03W HAS INTENSIFIED BY 15 KNOTS WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD AT 
14 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE (STR). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY 
WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTION WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE IMAGERY ALSO 
SHOWS THE SYSTEM'S OVERALL SIZE IS VERY SMALL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW/KNES OF T3.5 AND FROM RJTD OF 
T4.0. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE 
PGTW/RJTD POSITION FIXES IN CONCERT WITH A 120932Z CORIOLIS 
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE.
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 
HOURS. AS FOR INTENSITY, TS 03W SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER 
THE NEXT DAY AS IT FURTHERS TRACKS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS), HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND 
ROBUST OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS 
SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 
24, TS CONSON SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LUZON INTO AN 
AREA OF INCREASED VWS AND LOWER OHC IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTH-
WESTWARD AS AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING 
STR. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK 
THAT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG SOME TIME AFTER TAU 96. IN 
ADDITION, THE AIDS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE EXTENDED 
TAU'S OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS 
TRACKER WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TURNS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY INTO THE RIDGE 
UPON REACHING LUZON.//
NNNN