WTPN51 PGTW 242100 WARNING ATCP MIL 02W NWP 100324202226 2010032418 02W OMAIS 013 01 300 16 SATL 060 T000 141N 1321E 050 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD T012 154N 1309E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD T024 165N 1304E 050 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD T036 171N 1304E 040 R034 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD T048 177N 1307E 020 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (OMAIS) WARNING NR 013 1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (OMAIS) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 132.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 132.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.4N 130.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.5N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.1N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.7N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 131.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TS OMAIS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A REGION OF INCREASED VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 48 TS 02W WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY TAUS. IN THE LATER TAUS, GFDN AND ECMWF SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD, WHILE WBAR AND GFS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.// 0210031806 23N1566E 15 0210031812 24N1559E 15 0210031818 25N1552E 15 0210031900 26N1543E 15 0210031906 25N1533E 20 0210031912 23N1522E 20 0210031918 28N1509E 20 0210032000 33N1498E 20 0210032006 39N1487E 20 0210032012 43N1471E 20 0210032018 45N1462E 20 0210032100 47N1457E 20 0210032106 49N1453E 20 0210032112 55N1446E 20 0210032118 66N1434E 25 0210032200 72N1429E 30 0210032206 79N1426E 30 0210032212 86N1417E 30 0210032218 92N1404E 35 0210032300 97N1395E 35 0210032306 102N1386E 35 0210032312 107N1376E 35 0210032318 112N1363E 35 0210032400 118N1353E 35 0210032406 124N1345E 35 0210032412 133N1335E 45 0210032418 141N1321E 50 NNNN