WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF YAP, HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE BANDING ALTHOUGH ITS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS PARTIALLY DECOUPLED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION,
AS EVIDENCED FROM A 231007Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 02W IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN OUTFLOW AND AN ELONGATION ON
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS 02W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS THE VWS RELAXES AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE 
RIDGE AXIS. AFTER TAU 48, THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW TS 02W TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE
STORM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED WESTERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION
DUE TO A WEAKENED STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 96. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH GFDN ON THE EXTREME
LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE AND WBAR ON THE RIGHT. THIS FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE PACK AND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS.//
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