WTPN51 PGTW 280900 WARNING ATCP MIL 26W NWP 091128065547 2009112806 26W NIDA 026 01 060 02 SATL 020 T000 191N 1393E 145 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 135 NW QD T012 197N 1395E 140 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD T024 204N 1399E 125 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD T036 211N 1406E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD T048 220N 1416E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD T072 235N 1435E 050 R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T096 257N 1489E 030 AMP 072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 096HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 026 1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 139.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 139.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 19.7N 139.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.4N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.1N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.0N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 23.5N 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 25.7N 148.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 139.3E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT STY 26W HAS BEEN ALMOST STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 9 HOURS, WITH A NOTICEABLE WOBBLE OBSERVED IN THE MSI. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH JGSM, ECMWF, UKMO AND GFS SHOWING A WESTWARD TRACK. WBAR, TC-LAPS, GFDN AND NGPS MAINTAINING A RE-CURVE FORECAST. NGPS HAS PERSISTED WITH EXCESSIVE TRACK SPEEDS AND ERRONEOUS INTEN- SITY VALUES OUT TO TAU 120. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SHIFTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, KEEPING THE CURRENT TRACK SPEEDS SLOW THROUGH TAU 48, INCREASING SPEED BEYOND TAU 48 AS STY 26W MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD TO PROVIDE THE STEERING SUPPORT IN THE LATER TAUS. A 280426Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE THE SECONDARY EYEWALL IS BEGINNING TO CONSTRICT INWARD. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD REFLECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BRING THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 145 KNOTS. THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS STY 26W MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT/SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// 2609112012 51N1491E 15 2609112018 52N1488E 15 2609112100 53N1485E 20 2609112106 56N1483E 20 2609112112 59N1484E 20 2609112118 62N1486E 20 2609112200 65N1487E 25 2609112206 68N1487E 30 2609112212 72N1486E 30 2609112218 75N1485E 30 2609112300 80N1483E 30 2609112306 84N1478E 35 2609112312 86N1470E 45 2609112318 86N1464E 50 2609112400 87N1459E 55 2609112400 87N1459E 55 2609112406 89N1455E 65 2609112406 89N1455E 65 2609112412 93N1450E 65 2609112412 93N1450E 65 2609112418 98N1443E 80 2609112418 98N1443E 80 2609112418 98N1443E 80 2609112500 107N1438E 100 2609112500 107N1438E 100 2609112500 107N1438E 100 2609112506 116N1430E 125 2609112506 116N1430E 125 2609112506 116N1430E 125 2609112512 126N1422E 150 2609112512 126N1422E 150 2609112512 126N1422E 150 2609112518 136N1414E 160 2609112518 136N1414E 160 2609112518 136N1414E 160 2609112600 145N1407E 150 2609112600 145N1407E 150 2609112600 145N1407E 150 2609112606 152N1400E 145 2609112606 152N1400E 145 2609112606 152N1400E 145 2609112612 158N1397E 145 2609112612 158N1397E 145 2609112612 158N1397E 145 2609112618 163N1393E 135 2609112618 163N1393E 135 2609112618 163N1393E 135 2609112700 169N1392E 130 2609112700 169N1392E 130 2609112700 169N1392E 130 2609112706 178N1392E 130 2609112706 178N1392E 130 2609112706 178N1392E 130 2609112712 183N1390E 135 2609112712 183N1390E 135 2609112712 183N1390E 135 2609112718 187N1390E 150 2609112718 187N1390E 150 2609112718 187N1390E 150 2609112800 190N1391E 150 2609112800 190N1391E 150 2609112800 190N1391E 150 2609112806 191N1393E 145 2609112806 191N1393E 145 2609112806 191N1393E 145 NNNN