WTPN51 PGTW 272100 WARNING ATCP MIL 26W NWP 091127205425 2009112718 26W NIDA 024 01 360 04 SATL 025 T000 187N 1390E 150 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 135 SW QD 145 NW QD T012 195N 1391E 140 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 135 SE QD 135 SW QD 145 NW QD T024 203N 1395E 125 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 145 NW QD T036 213N 1405E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 145 SE QD 145 SW QD 145 NW QD T048 223N 1417E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD T072 249N 1453E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD T096 284N 1526E 035 AMP 072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 096HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 024 1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 139.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 139.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 19.5N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.3N 139.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.3N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 22.3N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 24.9N 145.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 28.4N 152.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 139.0E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH A 25 NM EYE AND IMPROVED EYEWALL CONVECTION. A 271700Z AMSU IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STY 26W IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED FORWARD MOTION TO 04 KNOTS WITH TROCHOIDAL MOTION; STY 26W IS STILL TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 140 (RJTD) TO 155 KNOTS (PGTW). CURRENT ANALYSIS OF 700/500MB DATA SUPPORTS A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH ZONAL MIDALTITUDE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 25N. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS AND THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION, THE TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN DECREASED THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AND TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED AT TAU 72/96 TO REFLECT DE-COUPLING DUE TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH JGSM, ECMWF, UKMO AND GFS INDICATING RAPID WEAKENING AND A SUBSEQUENT TRACK WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES WHILE NOGAPS AND GFDN SUPPORT A RAPID ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INDICATORS IN THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE PRIMARILY TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH MAY PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM COMPLETING ITS ETT AND LEAD TO A DISSIPATION SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.// 2609112012 51N1491E 15 2609112018 52N1488E 15 2609112100 53N1485E 20 2609112106 56N1483E 20 2609112112 59N1484E 20 2609112118 62N1486E 20 2609112200 65N1487E 25 2609112206 68N1487E 30 2609112212 72N1486E 30 2609112218 75N1485E 30 2609112300 80N1483E 30 2609112306 84N1478E 35 2609112312 86N1470E 45 2609112318 86N1464E 50 2609112400 87N1459E 55 2609112400 87N1459E 55 2609112406 89N1455E 65 2609112406 89N1455E 65 2609112412 93N1450E 65 2609112412 93N1450E 65 2609112418 98N1443E 80 2609112418 98N1443E 80 2609112418 98N1443E 80 2609112500 107N1438E 100 2609112500 107N1438E 100 2609112500 107N1438E 100 2609112506 116N1430E 125 2609112506 116N1430E 125 2609112506 116N1430E 125 2609112512 126N1422E 150 2609112512 126N1422E 150 2609112512 126N1422E 150 2609112518 136N1414E 160 2609112518 136N1414E 160 2609112518 136N1414E 160 2609112600 145N1407E 150 2609112600 145N1407E 150 2609112600 145N1407E 150 2609112606 152N1400E 145 2609112606 152N1400E 145 2609112606 152N1400E 145 2609112612 158N1397E 145 2609112612 158N1397E 145 2609112612 158N1397E 145 2609112618 163N1393E 135 2609112618 163N1393E 135 2609112618 163N1393E 135 2609112700 169N1392E 130 2609112700 169N1392E 130 2609112700 169N1392E 130 2609112706 178N1392E 130 2609112706 178N1392E 130 2609112706 178N1392E 130 2609112712 183N1390E 135 2609112712 183N1390E 135 2609112712 183N1390E 135 2609112718 187N1390E 150 2609112718 187N1390E 150 2609112718 187N1390E 150 NNNN