WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
241956Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (25 KNOTS IN
06 HOURS) WITH A CONTRACTING EYE (CURRENTLY 12 NM) WITH A BANDING
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC, WHICH IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FIXES AND
RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS.
    B. TY 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
AT 27N 160E. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING 
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGES WITH NOGAPS, GFS, UKMO AND GFDN TURNING 
THE SYSTEM SHARPLY WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE JGSM AND WBAR 
TRACK TY 26W NORTHWESTWARD. TC-LAPS AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM 
NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER, ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED 
FROM A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT 24/00Z TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AT 
24/12Z AND RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM AT 15N, WELL-SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS 
(20N). THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE JGSM/WBAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU 
72.     
    C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
POOR AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED. THE FORECAST FAVORS A RE-CURVATURE
SCENARIO BEGINNING NEAR TAU 120 WITH SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY REASONING FOR THIS IS THAT IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT TY 26W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY SOUTH OF 20N AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE NORTHEASTERLY COOL SURGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF SOLUTION 
TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE AND IS ERRATIC. ALL 
THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 22N WITH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS A DEEPENING 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE A RE-CURVE AROUND 20N WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AFTER 
TAU 120.//
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