WDPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING 
NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (MIRINAE)HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY TRACK
TO THE WEST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
A STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. IN THE PAST THREE
HOURS A FLARE OF CONVECTION HAS APPEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. A
312207Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC
STRUCTURE SINCE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), WITH STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF TS 23W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS AND SOUNDINGS
IN THE VICINITY OF TS 23W INDICATE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
DRY THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS, AND IS BUFFERING THE WESTERN 
EXTENT OF THE SCS WITH ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS OF MIRINAE. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.    
B.  TS 23W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND TAU 12 AS 
IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE WILL STRENGTHEN 
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, LEADING TO INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF MIRINAE THROUGH 
TAU 24, AT WHICH POINT, TS 23W WILL MAKE LANDFALL. BEYOND TAU 24 
LAND INFLUENCES WILL LEAD TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.//
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