WDPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON MIRINAE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM DRAGGED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF
LUZON. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS LOST SOME OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 301059Z TRMM PASS THAT SHOWS A 7 NM DIAMETER
MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF PGTW, RJTD AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
TYPHOON CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
PRESENCE OF A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. 
    B.  TY 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN QUEZON
PROVINCE AROUND TAU 06, DEFLECT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH TOWARDS MANILA,
AND EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A WEAKENED TYPHOON LESS THAN 10
HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. IT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY AN
EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE. MIRINAE WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
VIETNAM JUST BEFORE TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK WITH WBAR REMAINING AS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO
THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. SOME OF THE MODEL AIDS, INCLUDING JGSM,
UKMET, AND GFS TAKE THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SOUTH TOWARDS HO CHI
MINH CITY, VIETNAM.//
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