WDPN31 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 047// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) LUPIT HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AND HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRICAL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPID DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM BECAME ENGULFED IN THE DEEP WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST IN A REGION OF INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. 3. FORECAST REASONING A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AT A MINIMAL TS INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND BECOME FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 36. ALL THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. NNNN