WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED 
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND HAS
DECREASED IN SIZE FROM 20 NM AT 190530Z TO 10 NM AT 191130Z. ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TY 22W, A SLOT OF DRY COOLER AIR HAS STARTED
TO WRAP TO THE SOUTH OF LUPIT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A RIBBON
OF DRY AIR CONTINUING ON TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE
DRY AIR HAS NOT STARTED TO INTERACT WITH THE CORE OF DEEPEST CON-
VECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CORE
REMAINS ISOLATED WITH HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE TRACK HAS
SHIFTED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SPED UP TO 09 KNOTS AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH HAS NOW LIFTED OUT OF THE AREA, ALLOWING THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF TY 22W. THE
DECREASE IN OUTFLOW AS THE TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT ALONG WITH THE DRY
AIR BUFFERING THE WESTERN HALF OF TY 22W HAS LED TO THE RECENT
WEAKENING OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON 6.0 DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT AS THE STR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN,
TY 22W WILL SHIFT TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARDS LUZON.
THE TRACK SPEED WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AT APPROXIMATELY 9 TO
10 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 72. LANDFALL WITH NORTHERN LUZON IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND THAT TIME AND WILL BRIEFLY SLOW THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN DRY AIR
TO THE WEST BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TY 22W,
THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLOWLY. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TRACK,
AND THIS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPEDE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HELP THE GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH ALL MEMBERS OF
CONSENSUS (WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF WBAR) IN A TIGHT CLUSTER
THAT CLOSELY APPROXIMATES THE FORECAST TRACK.
    C. LAND INFLUENCES WILL BRING THE INTENSITY DOWN MORE QUICKLY
FROM TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 96, BUT AS LUPIT MOVES BACK OVER WATER INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
RE-ORGANIZES.//
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