WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING
NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MEN-
TIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE HAS FURTHER 
ERODED THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST OF STY 22W, ALLOWING FOR A MORE EASTWARD
TRACK TO PERSIST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE ANIMATED IMAGERY INDI-
CATES THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND A MID-LATITUDE 
STR IS BEGINNING TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF STY 22W. THE TROUGH HAS 
BEEN ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND IN 
CONCERT WITH THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS HELPED TO INTENSIFY LUPIT TO
A SUPER TYPHOON. THE EYE HAS SEEN IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION AND AN 
EXPANSION IN SIZE (CURRENTLY 25 NM DIAMETER) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. 
POSITION IS BASED ON WELL DEFINED EYE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD 
TURN HAS SHIFTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
    B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST, 
SLOWLY SHIFTING TO A WESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN TAU 12 TO 24 AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE MID-
LEVEL STR BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF TY 22W. THE STR WILL 
STRENGTHEN AND LEAD TO AN ACCELERATION OF TY 22W TO THE WEST TOWARDS 
LUZON THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD, 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 12; 
THIS, ALONG WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM 
TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS AND 
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN FROM A SUPER TYPHOON TO TYPHOON STRENGTH FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT, WITH TWO NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS: WBAR AND TCLAPS KEEPING THE 
SYSTEM ON A NORTHWARD TRACK AROUND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO 
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. ECMF, NGPS GFS, UKMO, AND JGSM ARE ALL IN 
AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON OR THE SOUTHERN
LUZON STRAIT.
    C. BEYOND TAU 72 LUPIT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD 
UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL STR. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO 
MAINTAIN AS A TYPHOON WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS 
NEAR NORTHERN LUZON. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTS TY 22W TO 
REMAINS INTENSE THROUGH TAU 120.//
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