WDPN31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT)// WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) LUPIT HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED TO ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING OVERALL SYMMETRY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST A FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTH. THESE DYNAMICS ARE SUPPRESSING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (4.0), RJTD (3.5) AND KNES (T3.5). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TS 22W WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE AS IT VEERS POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THIS STAIR-STEP MOVEMENT WILL BE MOMENTARY AS A SECONDARY LOBE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING ON THE FOURTH DAY. C. BY TAU 72, TS LUPIT WILL RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS TS 22W MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS NORTHERN PHILIPPINES THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 WITH THE MODELS DEPICTING THE POLEWARD JOG IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AT VARYING DEGREES. WBAR HAS THE MOST EXTREME SOLUTION WITH A SHARP U-TURN TO THE RIGHT, AND GFDN AND NOGAPS ON A POLEWARDS RECURVE TOWARDS JAPAN. THE EUROPEAN MODELS - EGRR AND ECMWF, ARE MORE WESTWARD AND LEFT OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND JUST RIGHT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION.// NNNN