WDPN33 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 66// 
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 
    A. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W 
(PARMA) HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST 
OF VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
LOSING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING ELONGATED TO 
THE NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION FROM THE EASTERN SIDE IS FILLING INTO 
THE CENTER AS THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE RED 
RIVER DELTA. A 132322Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION 
OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST, 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTLINE. CURRENT 
POSITION IS BASED ON A FIX FROM PGTW, AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A.  FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC 
REASONING BULLETIN, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS BEEN CORRECTED 
SINCE THE LAST BULLETIN, AND DOES NOT REFLECT A PERIOD OF RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION.
    B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO 
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE 
RED RIVER DELTA REGION OF VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY 
LOSE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER LAND BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND TAU 24. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM AT 
TOO LOW OF AN INTENSITY, AND CONSEQUENTLY STRUGGLE ACCURATELY 
DEPICTING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND THE SHAPE OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IN THE 
REGION.//
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