WDPN33 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 056// 
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 
    A. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THAT CONVECTIVE BANDING IS NOW CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
IS STILL WELL-DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC, AS EVIDENT IN A 111116Z QUIKSCAT
PASS WHICH DEPICTS 40-KNOT WINDS. ACCORDINGLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 40 KNOTS FAVORS THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM KNES (T3.O) OVER
THOSE FROM RJTD (T2.0) AND PGTW (T2.O). TS PARMA IS SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING 
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN THOUGH THE INITAL FORECAST INTENSITIES
HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP. 
    B.  TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 111200Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING AT KINGS PARK
(22.5N 114.3E) OBSERVED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS, INDICATING THAT PARMA CAN CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AS PARMA TRACKS FURTHER WESTWARD, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD START TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE UPPER-AIR SOUNDING
AT HAIKOU (20N 110E) IS REPORTING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY STEERING WINDS.
FINALLY, BY TAU 24 TS PARMA WILL START TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER
HAINAN AND THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER VIETNAM BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FORECAST TRACK THROUGH HAINAN.//
NNNN