WDPN33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 54// 
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 
    A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) PARMA HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ALSO, EROSION PREVIOUSLY OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK,
HAS SUBSIDED, INDICATING A RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 101200Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM HAINAN SHOWING
MAXIMUM OF 15 KNOTS AT 250 MB AND BELOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND
POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 72 HOURS IN ANTICIPATION
OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. 
    B. TD PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT - LOW VWS AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES - BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO HAINAN. AFTER
TAU 36, TD 19W WILL CROSS INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN THEN MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF HANOI AND DISSIPATE. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF
CONSENSUS IN A TIGHTLY-PACKED SET OF MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. RIGHT
OUTLIERS INCLUDE WBAR AND GFS.//
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