WDPN33 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 052// 
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 
    A. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS SHOWS THAT
PARMA HAS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LITTLE CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPERIENCING
UNFAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 101002Z QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH
INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF 25- TO 30-KNOT WINDS.
3. FORECAST REASONING 
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN THOUGH THE FORECAST DURATION HAS BEEN
SHORTED TO 48 HOURS. 
    B.  TD 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA. THE
SYSTEM'S DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE LLCC. AS SUCH, TD PARMA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SHOULD
BE LESS THAN 25 KNOTS AS IT NEARS HAINAN. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FORECAST TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF HAINAN.//
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