WDPN33 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)// WARNING NR 38// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) PARMA HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS DRAGGING ALONG THE RUGGED WESTERN MOUNTAIN RANGE OF LUZON. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TS 19W HAS LOST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM LAOAG, ON THE NORTHWEST TIP OF LUZON AND FROM A 062107Z QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO RIDGES - ONE TO THE WEST AND ONE TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. B. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY EMERGE AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM CAUSING TS 19W TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS PARMA WILL GRADUALLY AND SLOWLY TRACK WEST AND REINTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN WIDE DISAGREEMENT BUT MOST EVENTUALLY BRING THE SYSTEM WEST WITH VARIATIONS ON THE TIMING. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO NNNN