WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA)
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON KETSANA HAS INTENSIFIED TO 90 KNOTS IN WARM WATERS AND 
UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH 
SOUTHEAST ASIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
LARGE, RAGGED EYE HAS PERSISTED SINCE 280230Z. THE CURRENT POSITION 
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES BY PGTW, KNES AND RJTD 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TYPHOON HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY 
WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 17W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER 
SOUTHEAST CHINA TOWARDS VIETNAM. WITH LESS THAN 36 HOURS REMAINING 
OVER OPEN WATER, THE TYPHOON IS EXPECTED TO REACH A MAX INTENSITY 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
WILL WANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH 
PUSHES DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM WATERS 
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. THE FORECAST IS TO THE 
NORTH AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR NOGAPS, 
EGRR, AND JGSM EXCESSIVELY INTERACTING THE SYSTEM WITH THE TROUGH TO 
THE NORTH AND STALLING THE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. 
//
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