WDPN32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)/
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY AS A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP 
CONVECTION. IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 130138Z AMSU-B 
IMAGE THERE APPEARED TO BE MULTIPLE WEAK CIRCULATIONS THAT 
CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE LLCC NORTHWEST OF LUZON, AS SEEN IN A 
131013Z TRMM IMAGE. THIS LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS 
TRACKED WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS) HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP THE LLCC PARTLY 
EXPOSED AS SEEN IN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
PGTW, AND KNES OF 30 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    B. TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 
72, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS TD 16W TRACKS 
WESTWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE AN OUTFLOW MECHANISM SUFFICIENT 
FOR STRONG INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH MAINLAND CHINA. BY TAU 72 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINA COAST NEAR 
THE VIETNAMESE BORDER AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TONKIN, 
WHICH DESPITE LAND INTERACTION CROSSING THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA, COULD 
PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS A MINIMAL 
TROPICAL STORM, AS REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WESTWARD TRACK THAT WILL MAKE LANDFALL 
ALONG THE CHINA COAST NEAR THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA, BEFORE CONTINUING 
INLAND INTO MAINLAND CHINA AND DISSIPATING. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE 
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE SPREAD WHICH DEPICT A MORE LONG-LASTING 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA AND A MORE COASTAL TRACK.//
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